Abstract
High latitude insect populations must cope with extreme conditions, particularly low temperatures. Insects use a variety of cold hardiness mechanisms to withstand this temperature stress, and these can drive geographic distributions through overwintering mortality. The degree of cold hardiness can be altered by two evolved responses: phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation. Phenotypic plasticity can occur within or between generations (transgenerational plasticity; TGP), and local adaptation can evolve through directional selection in response to regional climatic differences. We used the eastern spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) as a model to explore the role that variable winter temperatures play in inducing two aspects of plasticity in cold hardiness: TGP and local adaptation in phenotypic plasticity. This species is one of the most destructive boreal forest pests in North America, therefore accurately predicting overwintering survival is essential for effective management. While we found no evidence of TGP in cold hardiness, there was a long term fitness cost to larvae that experienced repeated cold exposures. We also found evidence of local adaptation in both seasonal and short-term plasticity of cold hardiness, as our more northerly populations that would experience lower overwintering temperatures had more plastic responses to cold exposure. These findings provide evidence for the importance of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation when modelling species distributions.